Originally published by Marnie Eisenstadt, The Post-Standard
The Syracuse-area
winter will not be a repeat performance of last year’s dud.
Local and national meteorologists are predicting at least 120 inches of snow, the average for our winter, and temperatures at or below normal.
Last winter, there were few opportunities to ski or make snowmen: Syracuse got 50.6 inches of snow, and temperatures were consistently above normal.
The reasons for why our blustery, snowy winter weather will return vary from scientist to scientist. Each has a go-to factor.
There’s the pattern of past winters and the predicted course of the high- and low-pressure systems that turn air into a jigsaw puzzle above us. And now there’s emerging science that says the amount of snow Siberia gets in the fall is a big predictor of our winters.
Local meteorologist Dave Eichorn thinks winter is coming back with a vengeance.
Eichorn, who writes a column for The Post-Standard and teaches meteorology at area colleges, says the pattern of past winters shows that we could have another “snowmageddon” or “snowpocalypse.”
He looked at snowfall data going back to 1951 and found that the trend in recent years shows the highs and lows becoming more extreme. In 2001-2002, there was a record low of 59.4 inches. The following year, Central New York got pounded with snow: 153.2 inches.
That zigzag pattern is evident throughout the 1990s and 2000s with the peaks getting higher and the valleys getting lower as time goes on.
“We switch between feast and famine,” said Eichorn, formerly of WSYR-TV, Channel 9.
He points to several factors that have their roots in a changing climate and warming planet. One of the biggest players, Eichorn said, is when a high pressure system sets up over Greenland. It’s called a “blocking high” that bottles up whatever weather is in the Northeast.
“It’s almost like atmospheric gridlock,” Eichorn said.
The stagnant pressure systems have become more common over the past decade, and there’s some research that links them to polar ice melt, Eichorn said.
Conditions also look good this year for lake-effect snow, Eichorn said. The temperature of Lake Ontario this week has been right around 49 degrees, which is average for this time of year. The lake needs to be at least average temperature, if not colder than average, for a good crop of lake-effect snow. Last winter, the lake was running a few degrees above normal, Eichorn said.
Last winter was the perfect “unstorm.” Several unusual things happened that turned the snow capital into a place where ski lifts sat idle. There weren’t any of those high pressure systems hanging over Greenland that lock the storms over the Northeast.
And then there was a La Nina, colder than average water temperatures in the Pacific Ocean. It would seem that that would bring us more cold and snow, but it worked out the opposite way, said Jessica Rennells, a meteorologist with the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University.
That’s because a stream of air over the Arctic, called the Arctic Oscillation, was in what’s called a positive phase. That made it suck the cold and snow far north of us, Rennells said.
Winter is never far from a Central New Yorker’s mind. Especially on the tail of a winter that threatened to steal our identity as hardy survivors. This winter’s outlook was the most-asked question at the New York State Fair this year, said Jim Teske, a meteorologist with WSYR-TV (Channel 9) in Syracuse.
He and Dave Longley, the chief meteorologist at the station, also said to expect at least 120 inches of snow, possibly as much as 140 inches. They looked at some of the same factors Eichorn did. And they also turned their attention to the recent snowpack in Siberia.
What does Siberia have to do with Syracuse? In the world of weather, it’s all connected.
“If you’re building snowpack in Siberia, you’re building the cold early,” Longley said. Snow across the most-northern region creates a giant reservoir of cold air.
“Some of that cold has to come down our way,” Longley said.
Longley said not to worry because November has been low on snow. There are usually more than 9 inches by now, but it looks like the month will end with a total of about 2 inches, he said.
“We’re behind the 8-ball already, I realize it,” Longley said.
He and Teske, too, expect there to be a few of those high pressure systems over Greenland that will lock the cold, snowy weather in from time to time.
Longley said he anticipates one or two coastal storms. The rest of the snow will likely be from lake effect.
Jack Boston, a senior meteorologist with AccuWeather in State College, Pa., who specializes in long-range forecasts, is calling for average snowfall for Central New York this winter. And he’s predicting it will be slightly colder than average.
That doesn’t sound too bad, but it will feel a world away from last winter, when temperatures were an average of 6 to 8 degrees above normal.
“That’s going to seem very harsh,” Boston said.
But every forecast comes with this caveat: a forecast is an educated guess that could be wrong. Computer models have replaced the woolly bear caterpillar as indicators of how the winter will be. But winds change. Pressure systems pop up.
Mother Nature is unpredictable.
Last year, no one forecast the winter that wasn’t. Channel 9 and others predicted an average winter — with plenty of snow — last year. Meteorologists admit they are very educated guessers.
Eichorn calls his long-term forecast for snow a bit of a “wishcast.”
“I don’t like driving in it,” he said. “But, gosh, I do like to cross-country ski.”